Richardson fallout begins to take shape

Gov. Bill Richardson‘s withdrawal as U.S. commerce secretary-designate is more than a one-day story. It’s a game changer for New Mexico politics.

Richardson’s sticking around New Mexico not only stops the shift in power to Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, who after six years as second fiddle would have had the chance to re-fashion state government in her own image as the state’s next chief executive, according to Albuquerque pollster Brian Sanderoff of Research & Polling Inc..

It also short circuits the plans of all those people who had hoped to move up, either by appointment to lucrative state government positions under a new governor or by running for a top elective office that would have opened up because of all the dominoes falling as a result of Denish moving up in the world, University of New Mexico political scientist Lonna Atkeson told the Independent.

“There were all these people waiting on the sidelines, some getting ready to join the Denish administration, or hoping to, and others in the current administration who may have already accepted jobs elsewhere,” Atkeson said.

At the same time, “There are probably a lot of exempt employees breathing a sigh of relief,” Sanderoff says of individuals Richardson appointed to state government posts and who likely would have faced an uncertain future under Denish. A governor has the authority to choose who he or she wants to serve in their cabinet and to appoint individuals to so-called exempt positions across state government.

The biggest loser in Sunday’s announcement may well be Denish. Richardson’s decision to linger in the Land of Enchantment deprives Denish of her chance to finally show New Mexicans what she’s made of, Sanderoff said.

Anticipating the transition, Denish set up a team of advisors last month to help her identify and navigate the problems and opportunities she would confront as chief executive, including the state’s financial difficulties. The state is facing a $450 million shortfall for the year that ends June 30, meaning the governor and the Legislature must negotiate in the upcoming legislative session on how best to get New Mexico out of this mess.

“I think she was looking forward to taking over,” Sanderoff said of Denish. “When you have a crisis, you not only have a challenge but you have an opportunity. You could demonstrate your leadership skills. New Mexico’s deficit, although large, is manageable.”

The individuals vying to win the appointment of lieutenant governor once Denish had ascended to governor will now have to wait — those included state Auditor Hector Balderas, Española mayor Joe Maestes and others — as will all those who had hoped to fill the post of whoever was chosen, Sanderoff and Atkeson explained.

Richardson said in a statement Sunday that he had withdrawn his name from consideration as President-elect Barack Obama’s commerce secretary because he didn’t want questions surrounding a state contract under investigation by federal prosecutors to detract from the important work the president-elect must do.

But Atkeson said she would be surprised if Richardson had made the decision to step aside on his own, and that what really happened was that President-elect Obama decided to nip the nomination in the bud.

“Richardson’s the type to say, let’s let things run their course. So I think there had to be pressure from the Obama team,” Atkeson said.

But in light of the corruption scandal in Illinois involving Gov. Rod Blagojevich, Obama felt he needed to “clear the headlines and move on,” she speculated.

“Obama wants to be seen as an honest person of change,” Atkeson said. Coming right off the scandal in Illinois, in which the governor there is accused of trying to sell Obama’s Senate seat to the highest bidder, the possibility that his commerce secretary nominee may be implicated in a pay-to-play scandal may have become just too problematic. “Obama doesn’t want to appear to be someone who is surrounded by corruption,” Atkeson said.

On the other hand, Atkeson noted, “you want good people in these positions, and in the end this could be a case of an investigation derailing a strong candidate when there might be nothing to it in the end.”

One thing is clear. Richardson will be back working with the Legislature for the full session, and not just through mid- to late-February, as he and others expected last month.

How he is received by state lawmakers will depend on him, and no one else, Sanderoff says. Richardson was greeted with a great deal of good will when he took over as governor in 2003. But in six years of working with — some would say bullying –the Legislature, Richardson has created a fractious relationship with some lawmakers, especially in the state Senate. So he needs to return to the Roundhouse with a mind toward compromise, Sanderoff emphasized.

“He needs to take a conciliatory attitude and try to find a middle ground instead of making decrees,” Sanderoff added. “The ball is in his court.”

Atkeson, however, doesn’t think the outcome of the 2009 legislative session will be impacted much because, as has become abundantly clear, there is “so little money to do anything with, that nothing will change much.”