I am writing today to announce the closure of the New Mexico Independent. After three and a half years of operation in New Mexico, the board of the American Independent News Network, has decided to shift publication of its news…
While environmental activists played their part yesterday during demonstrations at the capitol building, going so far as to dress up as solar panels and to sing the tune of “You Are My Sunshine,” their counterparts, the anti-cap-and-trade contingency who has…
Roughly one quarter of University of New Mexico students are unimpressed with the state’s flagship public school, according to a survey that questioned college students about their higher education experiences.
The race to replace Republican U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson in New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District may be closer than you think. A poll released today by Roll Call puts Democrat Martin Heinrich ahead of well-known Republican Darren White by a slim margin and has Heinrich hitting the critical point in any election — 51 percent.
White, the Bernalillo County sheriff who entered the race with support from the incumbent and from New Mexico political icon Sen. Pete Domenici, garnered 46 percent.
The automated poll of 631 likely voters by SurveyUSA had a four-point margin of error. It was conducted Aug. 26-28, when the Democratic National Convention was in full swing.
Pundits had expected the CD1 race to be close and hotly contested, but so far it’s been largely quiet. The district, which mainly encompasses Albuquerque, has a history of voting Republican despite the majority of voters being registered Democrats, and Democrats have wanted badly for years to take it back. Wilson vacated the seat after five terms to run for the U.S. Senate, but lost in the GOP primary against fellow Rep. Steve Pearce.
The Democratic National Congressional Committee put CD1 on its list of targeted races, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi invited Heinrich to the Speaker’s Issues Conference in August to introduce him to prominent national Democrats. Through June 30, he has raised $1.2 million, $965,000 of which came from individuals, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. None of that money had come from the Democratic Party.
White, who chaired the Bush-Cheney re-election effort in Bernalillo County in 2004, has hosted prominent GOP leaders including one with Bush in May and with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani last month. He also has benefited from outside help in his race against Heinrich by groups such as Freedom Watch. He lagged behind Heinrich in fundraising through June 30, the FEC reports show, landing $953,000. Of that, $50,000 had come from Republican Party connections, including the state and national parties.
But the two candidates have largely avoided each other, both in person and in advertising. The two appeared at a forum in late August sponsored by the New Mexico Wildlife Federation, and with other congressional candidates before the primaries. Heinrich launched the first TV ads of the CD1 campaign earlier this week.
White’s showing may be a reflection of the national mood toward Republicans, the Roll Call poll suggests. Only 30 percent of those polled had a favorable view of President Bush. The president’s unpopularity seemed to taint Wilson as well, as 40 percent of respondents had a favorable view of her and 45 percent said unfavorable.
Voters gave White slightly better marks, with a 43 percent favorable rating and only 29 percent unfavorable, Roll Call reported, though almost 30 percent neutral or no opinion. Heinrich was lower in both categories — 34 percent favorable, 26 percent unfavorable rating — and 40 percent neutral or no opinion.
But Heinrich also stands to gain from the coattails of Sen. Barack Obama. The poll found him ahead of Sen. John McCain, 55 percent to 41 percent.
Automated polling is often disparaged for its potential for inaccuracy. The 13-year-old son of Green Party activists, for example, could answer an automated poll as if he were a 76-year-old Republican widow. But a recent study reported on by the Wall Street Journal found at least some automated polls — including SurveyUSA — as or more accurate than their human-based counterparts
The study, conducted by the poll-scrutiny Web site Fivethirtyeight, compared polls done by 32 firms in 171 races from 2000 and found automated polling was often the most accurate.
The Heinrich-White poll results, combined with the relative inaction by the two campaigns, suggest Heinrich may be riding the coattails of the Democratic wave. His TV ads have adopted the national Democratic strategy of tying the Republican candidate to the hugely unpopular Bush administration. And with White serving as a Bush-Cheney campaign director four years ago, Heinrich has some built-in momentum.
On the other hand, White has been a popular county sheriff and has tried to distance himself from the president — White’s campaign Web site puts it like this: "A decisive leader, White has demonstrated the independence and the integrity it takes to bring real change to Washington."
CD1 went for incumbent Wilson by fewer than 1,000 votes in 2006, and Democrats are hoping Heinrich can put them over the top this time around. The new poll numbers are surely to encourage them that the goal is possible.
