ALBUQUERQUE — If you think the race for New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District seems quieter than anticipated, you’re not alone. What was widely expected to be a barn-burner has largely been a snoozer. The candidates have kept relatively low profiles and the airwaves have been largely devoid of their names and faces.

That’s started to change, with Republican Darren White and Democrat Martin Heinrich trading blows over debate schedules, resumes and flip-flops on various policies. And just this week, White came out with the first negative ad. Seasoned political observers tell the Independent that CD1 may have had a slow start, but it’s rolling now.

Said University of New Mexico political science professor Michael Rocca, “There’s going to be fireworks — soon.”

One reason the race has seemed slow is because it was — at least compared to its immediate predecessor, said Rocca and other veteran campaign analysts. The 2006 contest between incumbent Rep. Heather Wilson and her Democratic challenger, then-state Attorney General Patricia Madrid, was rolling in February, shifted into attack mode in July and accelerated from there.

Campaign contributions may help explain part of the difference between then and now, said Caroline Buerkle, who was Madrid’s campaign manager in 2006. Federal Election Commission reports show Wilson took in $4.9 million and Madrid collected $3.4 million by the time Wilson eked out an 861-vote victory. It was the most money ever spent to win CD1, discounting the extraordinary $6.5 million Democrat Phil Maloof put into his two bids to wrest the seat from Wilson in 1998 — a special election followed months later by the general.

“They both raised an enormous amount of money for CD1,” Buerkle said of Madrid and Wilson. “It was essentially the race in New Mexico.”

In contrast to 2006, this year’s CD1 donations through June 30 look downright skimpy. Heinrich had received $1.2 million and White’s donations totaled $953,000. Third-quarter reports are due Sept. 30 and could show an uptick, especially given a recent poll by the Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call that found Heinrich with 51 percent to White’s 46 — a sharp reversal from a White campaign internal poll last October in which White led Heinrich by 18 points.

There has been stiff competition for those dollars, too. A string of high-profile campaigns has tapped donors on all fronts, starting with Gov. Bill Richardson’s presidential bid late last year. Then came the lengthy Democratic presidential primary battle, the GOP primary between Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, and now the contests over four of New Mexico’s five seats in Congress.

Regardless of local largesse, Heinrich and White are both in line for substantial aid from their parties. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) have promised TV advertising money, to the tune of $1.3 million and $732,000, respectively.

Longtime New Mexico pollster Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling Inc., said CD1 does seem quiet, but partly because there’s little room for it in the media landscape. Between the presidential campaigns and the first open Senate seat in New Mexico in years, the CD1 contest has gotten lost, he said. “It’s being drowned out by the bigger races.”

Another reason is that Heinrich and White have been focused on their “ground war,” Rocca said — knocking on doors, attending neighborhood functions and registering voters. Because neither is an incumbent, they need to get out and meet people and build support in the target groups for both campaigns — Hispanics and independents.

Rocca said last week that he expected the candidates to shift “from a ground war to an air war real soon,” he said. “It’s only a matter of time before we’ll see more ads, especially negative ads.”

That happened Monday when White came out with an ad slamming Heinrich on his economic stance, charging that the Democrat will raise taxes and kill jobs. “Our economy can’t afford Martin Heinrich,” it says in closing.

“Negativity typically increases as Election Day gets closer,” Rocca said. And once the negative ads start, there’s no stopping them.

The analysts agreed that White came into the race with an edge. He has higher name recognition, largely because of his six years as a popular Bernalillo County sheriff — he won re-election in 2006 with a 63 percent margin, though over a weak Democratic rival. White also benefits from the district’s history of sending Republicans to Congress, despite having a majority of registered Democrats.

But White’s longstanding support of President Bush is giving Heinrich an easy target. White was chairman of the Bernalillo County Bush-Cheney re-election committee in 2004 and hosted a Bush fund-raiser earlier this year. Heinrich has already taken aim at that connection and can be expected to continue, said Rocca.

White, not surprisingly, makes no mention of the president on his Web site, which is the right strategy this year, Rocca said. “The farther White runs away from Bush, the better he will be — with independents especially.”

Republican strategist Mario Burgos  — who is on White’s finance committee but said he’s not privy to campaign planning — said he doubts Bush will be a factor in CD1, despite Heinrich’s efforts to make it so. “President Bush is finished, a lame duck,” so of course White hasn’t latched onto his coattails in advertising or endorsements, Burgos said.

The Bush effect didn’t stop Wilson from being re-elected in the Democratic tidal wave of 2006, he noted, and said it won’t hurt White in 2008. In fact, the strength of GOP presidential nominee John McCain will improve the turnout for White, Burgos added. “And I just don’t see a lot of excitement about Heinrich.”

Sanderoff said tying White to Bush could work, but that the strategy has a shelf life. “Whether it’s effective with voters, we’ll just have to wait and see.” What Heinrich must do, he said, is send a message to Democrats who have voted in the past for Wilson and other Republicans, “Come on home.”

Buerkle, the Democratic strategist, said she believes CD1 could, for the first time ever, elect a Democrat to Congress. “I think it’s going to be close,” she said, “but I think it could.” Heinrich will be aided by the widespread enthusiasm among Democrats for Barack Obama and Tom Udall, she said. “This district has always been a tough district for Democrats to win,” Buerkle said, “but I think we have a shot.”

Heinrich’s No. 1 challenge has been getting his name out to voters, Rocca said. “He’s basically known in Nob Hill and the University area and that’s about it.” A series of TV ads helped, but Heinrich needs every vote available from independents and Democrats who in the past have voted for Wilson, he said.

Debates, town hall meetings and the like can help candidates shore up their base, he said, but the typical audience is the base itself, not independent voters. Consequently, Heinrich’s decision to skip a KRQE-Channel 13 debate with White may not have hurt him, Rocca said.

But Burgos said he was puzzled by Heinrich’s decision. “He’s making the same mistake Patricia Madrid did,” by waiting until the waning weeks of the campaign to meet his opponent on stage. Madrid did that, and then froze for many painful seconds when asked a question about taxes. Wilson used video footage of Madrid’s silence in her subsequent ads and may have won the election as a result, many strategists now say.

“If you’re an incumbent, or ahead in the polls, you don’t debate,” Burgos said. “But on the flip side, if Madrid hadn’t waited until the last two weeks she wouldn’t have been hurt so badly.”

Two debates are scheduled, both on Oct. 26.

With less than six weeks until Election Day the CD1 race remains a toss-up in national polls and analyses, and by all accounts it may still be when the polls open Nov. 4.