According to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll, Harry Teague leads in the Congressional District 2 race, though the lead is within the margin of error — but on the outside range of that margin of error.

The poll will show Teague ahead 47 percent to 43 percent over Ed Tinsley.

Here are the preliminary numbers:

Fwd: NM 2 results:

A total of 400 likely voters (Margin of Error 5%) in the Second Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between September 30 and October 1, 2008. 

Democrats have rallied behind Teague. Teague is getting 84 percent of the Democratic vote; Tinsley is only getting 8 percent of the Democratic vote.

Tinsley is not doing as well hanging on to Republicans.

The poll shows Tinsley has the backing of 77 percent of Republicans, while Teague siphons off 13 percent of Republicans.

There will be more numbers available when released by Daily Kos.

Three percent of respondents said they would vote for a different candidate (there are no other candidates on the ballot, to my knowledge). Seven percent were undecided.

The poll also shows John McCain leads Barack Obama in the district 49 percent to 42 percent.

To put it in perspective, the race went to George W. Bush by a 58 percent to 41 percent margin in 2004 and 54 percent to 43 percent in 2000.