SouthValley_Truck2In a poll of 406 registered voters conducted 12 days before the election, two term State Rep. Richard Berry leads his two opponents in the race for mayor of Albuquerque.

The poll shows Berry leading incumbent mayor Martin Chavez by 5 percent, and leading former State Senate President Pro Tem Richard Romero by 7 percent.

The municipal election occurs on October 6, which is just over a week away. The winner has to earn 40 percent of the vote in order to avoid a run-off.

Brian Sanderoff, whose firm, Research and Polling, conducted the poll, says the results put the candidates within “striking distance” of each other. He explains in the Journal that Chavez has suffered as both of his opponents have focused their criticism on the incumbent. In addition, Berry has been consolidating the Republican vote while Romero and Chavez have split the Democratic vote:

…”What it comes down to is Richard Berry and Richard Romero have focused their criticism on Chávez — and this has taken its toll.”

…Although the city election is nonpartisan, polling results indicated party affiliation is a factor, Sanderoff said.

“Berry is consolidating Republican support, taking Republican votes away from Chávez,” Sanderoff said. “Romero is splitting Democratic voters with Chávez.”

The Independent has covered the race since March, and our reporting confirms Sanderoff’s analysis.

Early on, Berry and Romero set their sights Chavez.  The two even held a joint press conference in May to urge the mayor to not appear in city-funded television ads until after the election.  Both have campaigned on similar themes—the city budget,  public safety, and the notion that Chavez has been in office too long. Berry has pledged to only serve two terms if elected, and Romero says City Hall is run like a political machine.

Berry and Romero began their criticism in the spring, while Chavez didn’t start actively campaigning until July. Since then, Chavez has not spent his time criticizing the two, keeping a focus instead on his record of accomplishments. He took the gloves off just this past week, with advertisements questioning Richard Berry’s business experience, in light of Berry’s frequent claim that he’d run city government more like a business.

Additionally, as Sanderoff’s poll shows, the race has had a partisan flavor. This is seen most readily by the degree to which the Republican party has supported Berry through measure finance committees. While the municipal race itself is non-partisan, political parties as well as other types of groups can spend money for or against candidates so long as they register with the city.

Here is how Sanderoff breaks down the support the three enjoy:

• Voters who called themselves liberals leaned most heavily toward Romero, who had 38 percent support, compared with 28 percent for Chávez.
• Conservatives favored Berry, who had a little more than half — 53 percent —of those surveyed in his camp.
• Independent voters, or those who register without stating a party affiliation, were also more likely to choose Berry. Nearly two in five independents said they would vote for him. Chávez and Romero each had about one in five of the independents.
• Geographically, Romero had a lead in the Downtown-valley portion of Albuquerque. Chávez had a lead on the West Side, where he began his political career as a state senator. Berry led the far Northeast Heights and a had a slight edge in the mid-Heights.
• Voters who identified themselves as Hispanic were mostly split between Chávez and Romero, with Chávez at 37 percent support and Romero at 30 percent.
• Anglo voters were more likely to choose Berry — 37 percent — than Romero or Chávez.

It was conducted for the Albuquerque Journal by Research & Polling, Inc., the company of political analyst and pollster Brian Sanderoff, and has a margin of error plus or minus five percentage points.