For the upcoming 2011 fiscal year, which starts next July, New Mexico must climb out of a deep financial hole. Barry Massey of the Associated Press has written an analysis of the state’s budget situation, and he gives us all some sobering facts to ponder.
So you think New Mexico’s budget troubles are bad this year? Yes, you might answer, consult the dictionary for a definition of ‘bad’ and find ‘budget shortfall of more than $400 million in the middle of the year,’ which is exactly where New Mexico finds itself.
But wait. ‘Bad’ may be ripe for an updated definition. Because things could get much worse..
Revenues for next year are projected to be $96 million lower than current spending, Massey writes.
But that’s not the only problem.
Federal economic stimulus money will start to dry up next year, and the state has been using the federal dollars to pay for public schools and health care for the needy. To avoid cuts in those programs, the state needs to dig up $152 million in state revenue next year to replace the federal aid.
The combined revenue need: at least $248 million just to maintain a flat budget next year that doesn’t account for possible school and college enrollment increases and offers no money for the growing demand for health care and social services. The financial outlook, of course, will change depending on how this year’s budget is cut and if revenues continue to worsen.
Massey quotes Sen. John Arthur Smith, a Deming Democrat and chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, who says “many in the Legislature and in the executive branch are ‘in a state of denial that it’s not quite that bad.’”
The sheer immensity of the challenge may change the current dynamics of the debate over how to fix the budget once the Legislature convenes its regular session in January.
So far Gov. Bill Richardson and top lawmakers have resisted pleas to consider increasing taxes in a special session proposed for sometime in October, and rather have focused on making cuts to spending. That would align spending with sagging revenues, Massey writes.
But tax increases certainly could become a more attractive option in January when the Legislature convenes for a 30-day session, Massey writes, citing a Legislative Finance Committee report that shows tax reductions of $528 million since 2003.