1st Congressional District race should get national spotlight

After reading an article in The New York Times today entitled “G.O.P. Facing Tougher Battle for Congress,” I’m betting the national media will shine a spotlight on Albuquerque in the coming weeks. Everyone likes a good joust among equally matched, fierce competitors and this race offers that promise — as well as unpredictability.

Here’s a seat that was created four decades ago but has never been won by a Democrat; that implies a formidable challenge for Martin Heinrich. Nonetheless, Heinrich continues to sustain a narrow lead and has run a much more strategic and competent campaign than any recent Democratic challenger. His party is hopeful, as it has been before only to end up disappointed.

As for Darren White, Heinrich’s Republican rival, I spoke to three local Republican insiders at the McCain rally earlier this week and each one was genuinely confident that White would win. It’s one thing to be a Homer for your party, but these folks were clearly unfazed by Heinrich’s challenge and the trend nationally going against the GOP.

Take for example this excerpt from the Times, which highlights GOP desperation:

“Seize every opportunity to hold Democrats accountable for their role in creating the economic crisis,” Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, the Republican leader, urged his colleagues in a memorandum distributed Wednesday.

That dog ain’t gonna hunt. It’s George W. Bush and his appointees, Paulson and Bernanke, who wear the public face of the crisis. Besides, Republican Rep. Heather Wilson voted for the ostensibly unpopular bailout legislation and it wouldn’t seem wise for White to criticize her for it.

While White is very popular among his party’s local rank-and-file, there is also his unenviable association with President Bush;  he was Bush’s past campaign coordinator in Bernalillo County. Then there’s Republican presidential candidate John McCain. I would think McCain would be an asset to White, because Albuquerque voters who will decide this seat are the middle-of-the-road, moderate-to-conservative folks that McCain appeals to. In fact, it struck me as odd that White did not attend the McCain rally this week. I think he should have been the person to introduce McCain with great enthusiasm. That could have helped distance him from Bush. Personally, I think McCain is going to do well in Bernalillo County, better than Bush did in 2004, when he won New Mexico’s three electoral votes.

Overall, as a political observer doing my best to maintain some neutrality, I don’t see anything to be excited about in White’s campaign right now. The James McGrane commercial was an awful overreach. I thought it was one of the most cynical, self-serving campaign commercials I’d ever seen, and that’s saying something. And the recent news of the National Republican Congressional Committee retracting its advertising commitment for White sounds ominous, but the NRCC might be genuinely confident that White can win the seat without its assistance.

Heinrich, on the other hand, has run a steady campaign without missteps and seems to have unified support among the Democratic rank-and-file as well as unified ticket top to bottom. And again, most importantly, he’s sustaining his lead.

So why are Republicans so confident in White’s chances? The answer, the three Republican insiders I spoke to at the McCain rally said, is simple: “It’s a Republican seat.” Who knows? Maybe they’re right. After all, just two years ago, when the GOP was taking a thumpin’, Heather Wilson was behind in the polls the night before Election Day and she still pulled out a victory.

It could happen again. But I wouldn’t bet on it this year.