Public Policy Polling is asking readers of its blog which House district it should poll next, and New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District is on the list.
Tom Jensen of PPP writes:
It’s hard to believe that a year ago people were talking about permanent Democratic strongholds in the Mountain West. Now Barack Obama’s approval is in negative territory in both Colorado and Nevada, incumbent Democratic Senators trail by as much as double digits in polls in those states, and chances for the party for Governor this year look less promising than a year ago as well.
The demographic changes occurring in that region probably do mean in the long run that the years from 2000-2050 will be more friendly to the Democratic Party than the ones from 1950-2000 were. But in the short term those shifts, such as the increase in the Hispanic voting population, aren’t enough to make up for the much larger and faster shift in the national political mood since the 2008 election.
With that in mind I’m interested in looking at New Mexico next weekend as we look to do a House poll in a district where a Democratic incumbent voted for the health care bill. Here are your choices:
NM-1: Martin Heinrich won election pretty easily as Barack Obama took a 60-39 victory in this formerly Republican held district in 2008. If the Dems are in trouble here, well, they’re in trouble everywhere. But I guess we already know that because of Massachusetts!
Heinrich has only one announced potential opponent so far, Republican Jon Barela.
The other three districts in the running for being polled are the 3rd Congressional District in Colorado, the 5th Congressional District in South Carolina and the 1st Congressional District in West Virginia.
Previously, the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts in New Mexico were in the running, but both ultimately lost out to the at-large House seat in South Dakota.
Before Heinrich, the district was held by Republican Heather Wilson.