A poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press ahead of the 2010 midterm elections shows some bad news for incumbents but perhaps not as bad as in other so-called “wave” years. Still, Pew reports, “About three-in-ten voters (31 percent) say they do not want to see their own representative reelected, which is well above the average percentage expressing this view in 29 previous surveys (23 percent).”
This number mirrors the other election wave years of 1994 (when Republicans swept into control of Congress) and 2006 (when Democrats regained control of Congress). But other key indicators show that not all incumbents, or hte party in power, is completely in trouble.
More from Pew:
First, through most of the 2006 campaign the opposition party was viewed more favorably than the incumbent party. In 1994, both parties were favorably rated by substantial majorities of the public; currently, neither is.
Second, opinions about Barack Obama are not nearly as negative as were views of George W. Bush in 2006 and are somewhat better than opinions of Bill Clinton were for much of 1994. Currently, slightly more voters say they think of their vote as a vote for Obama (24 percent) than as a vote against him (20 percent). Throughout most of 2006, roughly twice as many said they were voting “against” Bush as “for” him. And in three surveys during the fall of 1994, slightly higher percentages said they thought of their vote as against Clinton rather than for him.
Democrats were favored over Republicans by 22 points in January (62 percent for Democrats and 40 percent for Republicans) but this February, the Democratic advantage has fallen to just two points (48 percent to 46 percent).
All three members of New Mexico’s congressional delegation have contested elections this year.