The Legislature has spent most of the last four weeks trying to address a yawning budget gap next year estimated at several hundred million dollars.
But New Mexico could have trouble breaking even this year.
Revenues for this year, which ends June 30, are coming in weaker than expected and, as of Wednesday, New Mexico was $40 million in the hole, according to a memo from the Legislative Finance Committee, the Legislature’s budget arm.
That gap is the difference between revenues and expenditures. And that gap could continue to grow, leaving some lawmakers concerned about the state’s financial condition.
“New Mexico is dangerously close to writing hot checks,” said Sen. John Arthur Smith, D-Deming, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee.
Added Sen. Steven Neville, R-Aztec: “None of the projections for any of the tax revenues – income tax, gross receipt tax – are holding up. They’re all faltering. The numbers aren’t there.”
That’s because of the dismal state of the economy, officials say. New Mexico’s unemployment rate rose to 8.3 percent, a 22-year high, in December, up from 4.7 percent last year.
More jobless people means reduced revenue from state income tax, for example.
The anemic state revenues are important for two reasons.
Lower revenues mean the state must dip into its reserves — which stand around $100 million — to make it through the year. And if revenues continue to slide, that could put New Mexico in a bind.
“Let’s say (the gap between revenues and expenditures) doubles to $80 million,” Smith said. “We’re still not out of the woods.”
The second reason lower-than-expected revenues is important is that it signals that one of the major assumptions for next year’s budget may be off. State officials have estimated that revenues in the year starting July 1 will grow by six percent.
But those projections are thrown into question, said Neville.
And that could mean that next year’s budget shortfall may be greater than projected. And any budget answer lawmakers settle on now may not work in the year ahead.
“If we have a special session and we find that our revenues are off by 6 percent,” that could lead to more cuts, Neville said Saturday.