Since Albuquerque’s 1st Congressional District seat was created back in 1968, a Democrat has never won — as in not once, nunca. But with the trend moving toward Barack Obama and Democratic congressional candidates nationally, local Dems are starting to feel good about Martin Heinrich’s chances.

Or, could it be déjà vu all over again? Meaning, the this-is-the-year feeling that rears its head in Democratic circles every two years gets squashed again by a sobering Election Day defeat.

Reliable recent polling has put Heinrich at 43 percent, Republican Darren White at 41 percent and 16 percent undecided. Considering the margin of error in the poll, that’s a toss-up among decided voters, with a sizable number still on the fence.

When the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) pulled more than $500,000 in TV advertising last week, conventional wisdom in the blogosphere made it sound like the GOP puppet masters in Washington were throwing in the towel on this race.

I propose to you now that the opposite is true. There is no way the NRCC pulls that money if they think White’s going to lose. That would be irrational, considering the closeness of the race. They pulled it because they are confident White is going to win and aim to spend that cash more strategically elsewhere.

According to a local pollster, the reason there are so many undecided voters in CD1 is because this is an open seat. Folks don’t know former one-term City Councilor Martin Heinrich as well they know White, the county sheriff since 2002 with brief experience as a local newscaster. While Heinrich is a telegenic guy, he hasn’t been in front of the camera as much as White, who never met a press conference he didn’t like. But as far as who would be a worthy congressman, both are unknown commodities and that, said the pollster, is likely to keep many of the 16 percent undecided right up to Election Day.

Meanwhile, White’s best counter-punch to getting slammed for his association with Bush would be running alongside a strong local McCain campaign. However, I’m guessing the White campaign has seen polls showing McCain doing poorly in Bernalillo County — why else did White fail to show up at McCain’s recent University of New Mexico visit? In fact, I’m betting White’s camp expects the sheriff to do much better than McCain in Bernalillo County. Why? Because White won re-election in 2006, when Gov. Bill Richardson lead a dominant Democratic victory up and down the ticket.

In fact, Democrat Patricia Madrid even out-polled Rep. Heather Wilson in Bernalillo County in 2006. It was Santa Fe and Torrance Counties that gave Wilson her narrow victory. (It’s quite possible the the district’s outskirts could decide the race again this year.)

Looking ahead, Heinrich will need to significantly out-fund-raise and out-spend White in the final days of the election. As political chatterhead Joe Monahan writes: “Heinrich is swimming with the tide, but his name ID is still a problem. Saturation and expensive TV is the answer …” He will also need to do very well in Bernalillo County — better than Madrid in 2006.

White’s campaign is going after Independents, with targeted mail calling Heinrich a tax-and-spend liberal. His TV ads are doing the same. Nothing new with that strategy. For that matter, there is nothing original about White’s campaign message. Unlike John McCain, White’s Web site doesn’t even attempt to suggest that a “change is coming.”

And perhaps that’s because, in his mind, change is NOT coming.

In short, Heinrich has his work cut out for him if he is going to ultimately buck the trend of the past 40 years. As for White, he had better hope the dour mood of the nation does not find its way to Albuquerque, or he could be writing the headline: “GOP’s first loser.” For now, please excuse the cliché, but it’s too close to call.

But make no mistake, voters, this year’s election is huge.  In 2010, the winner will have the formidable label of incumbent and just might hold onto the seat for the next 20 years.