
Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (Photo by Heath Haussamen)
According to recent polling by Rasmussen Reports, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish is at least 9 percent ahead of her closest Republican challenger in the race for Governor. According to the polling, PR firm owner Doug Turner comes closest of all the gubernatorial candidates, within 9 percent, and is just one of two candidates to hold Denish under 50 percent.
Denish leads Turner 43 percent to 34 percent, although this matchup also has the highest amount of undecideds of any of the five potential gubernatorial mathcups — 16 percent. The lieutenant governor leads former state Republican party chairman Allen Weh 45 percent to 35 percent, attorney Pete Domenici Jr. 52 percent to 35 percent, state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones 52 percent to 32 percent and Doña Ana District Attorney Susana Martinea 51 percent to 32 percent.
The poll shows that most voters have favorable views of Denish — 28 percent have “very favorable” views, while 27 percent have “somewhat favorable” views of the lieutenant governor. For Republican candidate, large pluralities are “not sure” if they have favorable or unfavorable views of the candidates, but Domenici, Jr. has the highest combined very and somewhat favorable views, at 44 percent.
“At this stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals,” Rasmussen wrote.
In the Republican pre-primary convention, Martinez earned the top spot on the Republican gubernatorial primary ballot. Weh also received an automatic spot on the ballot, while the other three candidates needed to collect additional ballots to get their name on the primary ballot.
This poll did not ask questions on the Republican gubernatorial primary election.
New Mexicans mixed on health care reform
The survey was conducted three days after the health care reform was passed in Congress and it showed that New Mexicans are generally more supportive of the plan than the nation as a whole.”
Though the results in New Mexico are more positive than the nation as a whole, the results are seemingly mixed. The poll shows that 53 percent strongly or somewhat favor the health care reform package that passed Congress this week and 44 percent strongly or somewhat oppose; of those, 40 percent strongly oppose the health care overhaul.
However, 46 percent rated President Barack Obama’s handling of health care reform as “excellent” or “good” while 55 percent said it was “fair” or “poor.” In another question, 46 percent favored a lawsuit against the “individual mandate” which requires people to buy health insurance; 44 percent opposed lawsuits against the legislation. The poll did preface the question by saying, ” Some people believe a federal law requiring every American to buy or obtain health insurance is unconstitutional,” which may effect the results of the question.
Also, 47 percent of those polled fear private insurance companies more than the federal government on health care decisions, while 43 percent feared the federal government more.
The polling was conducted after Obama signed the main health care reform bill but still used questions that framed the question as “the health care plan before Congress.”
The House passed a second “fix” bill of health care reform on Thursday evening.
Health care reform will be a campaign issue in November, especially among New Mexico’s members of Congress. The poll finds that 41 percent of those polled think that their local congressional representative deserves reelection, but 42 percent disagree. The poll finds that that New Mexicans are more charitable to their own congressional representative than to those in other states.
New Mexicans have a negative opinion of tea parties
The Tea Party movement has gained national attention in the past year; today, former Republcan Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin is headlining a tea party protest in the hometown of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.
New Mexicans have a negative impression of tea parties, according to the poll. Of those polled, 45 percent had a negative opinion of the tea party movement while 39 percent had a positive opinion of the movement.
Rasmussen found that 17 percent of New Mexicans consider themselves members of the Tea Party movement while 71 percent do not and 11 percent are not sure if they are members or not. This is below the amount in a national poll by Rasmussen earlier this month that found that 16 percent of Americans count themselves as part of the tea party movement.
Voters approve of Obama, disapprove of Richardson
Likely voters in New Mexico say they like Obama (54 percent approval rating) but not Governor Bill Richardson,who has negative approval ratings. Just 39 percent of those polled approve of the job that Richardson is doing while 58 percent disapprove.
This is higher than a poll by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic pollster, which had Richardson’s approval ratings at 28 percent. However, comparing the two polls would not be an apples-to-apples comparison. Public Policy Polling surveyed registered voters, while Rasmussen polled likely voters.
The poll of 500 likely voters has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results to all the questions are available here. The poll was conducted using interactive voice response (IVR) polling, also known as “robo-polling.” A previous poll of this type was criticized as unscientific by some in New Mexico, though an analysis by a Fordham University professor found that two of the top five most accurate pollsters in 2008 were IVR pollsters, including Rasmussen, and one was an internet pollster.