I am writing today to announce the closure of the New Mexico Independent. After three and a half years of operation in New Mexico, the board of the American Independent News Network, has decided to shift publication of its news…
While environmental activists played their part yesterday during demonstrations at the capitol building, going so far as to dress up as solar panels and to sing the tune of “You Are My Sunshine,” their counterparts, the anti-cap-and-trade contingency who has…
Roughly one quarter of University of New Mexico students are unimpressed with the state’s flagship public school, according to a survey that questioned college students about their higher education experiences.
A new poll by SurveyUSA shows that not only are both Barack Obama and Tom Udall leading their Republican counterparts in those intending to vote, they are also leading among those who have already taken advantage of absentee voting.
Obama’s lead over John McCain is 52 percent to 45 percent according to the poll of 568 likely and actual voters. The poll was conducted on October 12 and 13. This is one percent less than the poll conducted September 29 and 30. The change can be described as “float” in the margin or error.
In the Senate poll, Udall leads Steve Pearce 58 percent to 40 percent. SurveyUSA says this is “unchanged” from their last poll, which showed Udall ahead 58 percent to 39 percent.
The margin of error on the poll is +/- 4.2 percent.
Once again, the key to Obama’s lead lies among New Mexico’s Hispanic and Native American populations:
Obama continues to need the support of Hispanic Americans and Native Americans to win the state. McCain leads by 13 points among New Mexico [non-Hispanic] whites; Obama leads by 45 points among Hispanics and by 29 points among Natives. If Hispanic turnout is overstated in this model, so is Obama’s lead. If Hispanic turnout is understated in this model, so is Obama’s lead.
Basically, Obama’s results in New Mexico will be decided by the turnout of Hispanics.
Among those who have already voted, Obama’s lead is 23 percent — 60 percent to 37 percent. His lead among those intending to vote is six points, 51 percent to 46 percent. Udall sees a 65 percent to 32 percent advantage among those who have already voted. This is compared to a 57 percent to 41 percent advantage among those who intend to vote.
So far, 10 percent of those polled have already voted. Early and absentee voting is expected to account for more than half of the votes cast in this year’s election.
Both Democrats winning statewide also post leads in Bernalillo County. Udall has 59 percent to Pearce’s 38 percent in New Mexico’s most populous county, while Obama leads 53 percent to 44 percent. This may be good news for Albuquerque Democrat Martin Heinrich, who is running in the 1st Congressional District’s open seat.
Nearly all of the 1st Congressional District is in Bernalillo County. Heinrich faces Republican Darren White in the race.
The top issue for voters still is the economy; 57 percent of respondents said it was the top issue for them in this year’s election. Next was terrorism with 9 percent.
