New Mexico is hurting financially, no doubt. Unemployment is at a 22-year high. Tax revenues that pay for services are way down. But apparently things could be worse.
Thanks to a monthly tracking report provided by the Legislative Finance Committee, we can see that revenue from the oil and gas industry is keeping the state’s bottom line from drooping even lower than it might.
A chart in this month’s report shows that as of February personal and corporate income taxes had come in $100 million short of expectations. (roughly $69 million for personal income tax and $37 million for corporate income tax). But revenue derived from the oil and gas industry — mineral production taxes and revenue from rent and royalties — has softened the blow a bit, coming in roughly $70 million over projections.
The state’s largest revenue-generator, the gross receipts tax, which produces close to a third of the state’s tax revenue, meanwhile, had brought in $12.5 million below expectations through February. That’s as good a measure in the LFC tracking report chart as anything on how the economy is doing here in New Mexico. Gross receipts tax tracks the purchases of hundreds of categories of goods and services across the state.
The Albuquerque Journal had a piece over the weekend that touched on some of these dynamics.
It’s important to note that the LFC’s tracking report doesn’t reflect a consensus among the state government’s fiscal experts and economists who several times a year get together to agree on revenue projections and other budgetary matters. In fact, the LFC and Gov. Bill Richardson’s administration have argued over revenue projections for months.
The LFC tracking report, instead, is solely the work of that agency’s staff and the authors of the report make that clear, writing “The expected amounts are derived by LFC staff and are not a product of the consensus revenue estimating group.”