Martinez to run on ‘change’ strategy memo indicates

Susana Martinez released a press release advertising her strategy for the New Mexico gubernatorial campaign, highlighting polling information and ballot trends.

To her figures, we decided to add in a few notes in bold.

MEMORANDUM

TO:        INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM:    NICOLE McCLESKEY
RE:        THE 2010 NEW MEXICO GENERAL ELECTION FOR GOVERNOR
DATE:    JUNE 2, 2010

While encouraged by the strength of the Susana Martinez primary election victory, we recognize the challenges ahead in the general election.  Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish is an entrenched incumbent with powerful allies and a large war chest.  But, this election presents a very solid opportunity for a Republican candidate like Susana Martinez to emerge.

The Political Environment

This is a very difficult political environment for Bill Richardson’s “good, loyal soldier,” Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish.

#    In a statewide survey of 500 likely general election voters conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (POS)

(calls itself the “largest Republican polling firm in the country“)

in late January 2010, 61% of voters believe the state has gotten off on the wrong track. This includes two-thirds of Independent voters (66%) and even 59% of soft Democrats who are dissatisfied with the direction the state is headed.

(This was an unreleased internal poll. The Martinez campaign said in a press release on February 24, “it’s also important to take early polls with a grain a salt.”)

#    In a recently released Rasmussen survey conducted among 500 likely voters,
57% of voters disapprove of the job Bill Richardson is doing.

(In the same survey, Denish led Martinez 52 to 31 points.)

#    Voters are in the mood for change this election.  From the January POS survey, just 33% of voters say they want to generally continue the policies of Governor Richardson, while 59% want to significantly change course.

Encouraging Ballot Trends

Public surveys published last week demonstrate the power of a Susana Martinez challenge to Diane Denish.  In the SurveyUSA poll, Martinez holds a 49%-43% lead over Denish. In a best case scenario for Denish, Rasmussen Reports has the survey a dead-heat at 42% Martinez/43% Denish.

A look at the SurveyUSA crosstabs offers a revealing look at what is going on below the surface:

#    At 40% of the Hispanic vote, Martinez is already closing in on the percentage of Hispanic votes a
GOP candidate needs to win statewide.  George W. Bush carried New Mexico in 2004 with 44%
of the Hispanic vote.  McCain faltered in 2008 earning only 30% of the Hispanic vote.

#    Martinez is already in front among Independent voters, leading 50%-38%.

#    Showing cross-party appeal, Martinez takes nearly one quarter (23%) of Democrat votes.

#    Martinez posts a 48%-44% advantage in Bernalillo.  Historically, if a Republican candidate is able to compete in Bernalillo that bodes extremely well, particularly when one considers Martinez’s base is in the southern part of the state,

(where Martinez leads 50-42).

#    While Martinez has a healthy advantage among men (53%-40%), the race is tighter among women (45%Martinez/46% Denish).  The Martinez candidacy effectively negates any gender advantage for Denish among women.

In conclusion, Susana Martinez dramatically changes the landscape of the general election contest — she is an extremely effective messenger delivering a commitment to reform that resonates with key electoral subgroups.  Voters in New Mexico are seeking change this election, and Diane Denish will have a very difficult time extricating herself from an unpopular governor and the current Administration’s failed policies.  Martinez and her mantle of bold change will be a key determinant to the outcome in November.