More than half of the state House seats up for election this year were decided Tuesday night as 36 state lawmakers either faced no opposition in the primary—or won Tuesday and are unchallenged in the general election.
At the end of the night Democrats had 19 safe seats, while Republicans had 17, according to the Secretary of State’s website.
But that means that most of the 34 House seats up for grabs in November – 26 — belong to Democrats. Only eight are are currently in Republican hands.
That disparity between targeted Democratic and Republican seats signals that the GOP is trying to seize momentum this election cycle to regain legislative seats the party has lost in recent years, said Brian Sanderoff of Research & Polling, Inc., a leading pollster of New Mexico politics.
“Some Republicans feel, like Democrats felt in 2008, that 2010 is their year,” Sanderoff told The Independent. “Somebody’s making a play, yeah, but that’s the idea. It’s a two-party system. Republicans will be the first to admit they have dropped the ball in candidate recruitment. They’re doing a better job” this year.
The Republicans won’t wrest control of the House from Democrats, Sanderoff said, because there aren’t enough vulnerable Democrats.
Democrats hold a 45-25 advantage in the chamber. (Lawmakers in the House are the only ones up for re-election this year. Lawmakers in the Senate run every four years, meaning they aren’t up for re-election until 2012.) But the GOP has a real shot at regaining a few House seats that were considered safe Republican posts until they unexpectedly lost them, he said.
The most cited example is House District 30, which Democrat Karen Giannini won in 2008 in a shocker by beating GOP lawmaker Justine Fox Young.
It was one of the bigger surprises in 2008, which by almost any measure was a decidedly Democratic year in New Mexico.
Democrats swept the state’s congressional races and added seats in the state House and Senate.
This year Republicans are hoping to repay the favor, and are attempting to surf voter discontent and anger that polls have been picking up on nationally.
Giannini faces GOP opponent Nate Gentry in November.
“You don’t pick up seats unless you run someone,” Sanderoff said.
A recap of Tuesday night
There were few shockers among Tuesday night’s legislative races. But there were surprises. Unofficial returns show two-term Democrat Elias Barela, D-Belen, losing to fellow Democrat Julian Luna.
Eight-term Republican Gloria Vaughn, R-Alamogordo, probably won’t return to the Legislature either. She appears to have lost to GOP challenger Yvette Herrell.
Both Luna and Herrell face opponents in November.
Meanwhile in Santa Fe, House Speaker Ben Lujan’s had an up-close-and-personal experience with an election night scare. Lujan appears to have eked out a victory over challenger Carl Trujillo. But the battle isn’t quite over as Santa Fe County Clerk’s Office counts provisional ballots in that race and Trujillo appears poised to ask for a recount if the election doesn’t go his way.
Vaughn and Barela might have been the only lawmakers to lose Tuesday, but first-term Democrat Sandra Jeff, D-Crownpoint, almost joined them.
Jeff’s profile rose this year, in part, due to her open challenge of Lujan and other powerful lawmakers on key pieces of legislation during this year’s regular and special legislative sessions.
Jeff barely fended off two challengers Tuesday night, including former lawmaker Irvin Harrison, whom Jeff replaced in 2008 after Harrison departed the Legislature.
In another closely watched race six-term Democrat Richard Vigil won a four-way primary to face GOP challenger Mel Root in November.
Deciding not to run
Besides Barela and Vaughn other lawmakers won’t be back in January, but they’re not returning of their own choice.
Veteran lawmakers Jose Campos, a Democrat, and Republicans Janice Arnold-Jones and Kathy McCoy all chose not to run for re-election.
Campos sought unsuccessfully to become his party’s lieutenant governor nominee Tuesday night. He came in third in Tuesday’s voting, behind Brian Colon and Lawrence Rael.
Campos’ seat will be contested in November. Democrat George Dodge Jr. faces Republican Melinda Joy Russ.
But replacements for both Arnold-Jones, who ran unsuccessfully for the GOP’s gubernatorial nomination Tuesday night, and McKoy were chosen Tuesday night. Republicans Conrad James and James Smith won the seats in GOP primary elections.
They face no Democratic opposition in November.