Albuquerque freshman Rep. Martin Heinrich is trailing his Republican rival, Jon Barela, by six points, according to a Survey USA poll commissioned by KOB’s Eyewitness News 4. In a poll of 559 likely voters, taken July 22-25, Barela’s lead exceeds the 4.2 percent margin of error.
Heinrich’s race hasn’t so far been seen as that competitive; Although Southern New Mexico Democrat Harry Teague’s race against Republican Steve Pearce was listed today in the National Journal’s “40 House Races to Watch,” Heinrich’s was not.
In response to KOB, the Heinrich campaign released an internal poll (generally not trusted as much as independent polls, such as Survey USA’s) showing Heinrich with a 12 point lead over Barela. The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll was taken July 8-13 and showed Heinrich with 53 percent of the vote to Barela’s 41.
The Survey USA poll more closely mirrors national polls that show voters, frustrated with the economy, are in an anti-incumbent mood. A national Rasmussen poll released yesterday showed that Republicans lead Democrats by 10 points in a generic ballot. According to Rasmussen, 46 percent of likely voters say they’d vote for a Republican for Congress, while only 36 would vote for a Democrat.