Democrat Diane Denish and Republican Susana Martinez promise not to cut spending on education at the same time they will not raise your taxes if elected governor. But the economic realities that will confront the winner of the governor’s race likely will make confetti of those promises.
The Associated Press has an analysis out today of the state’s budget situation in which writer Barry Massey lays out a reality check. First, New Mexico is staring at a $230 million shortfall this year, meaning it needs that much money to keep services and programs at their current level. Secondly, public education, which includes K-12 and colleges and universities, makes up more than half the state budget. Thirdly, roughly 10 percent of the state’s spending plan helps to pay for health insurance for poor New Mexicans.
Add all those factors up and you have a situation ripe for campaign promises falling victim to a harsh reality.
Or as Massey quotes a top lawmaker as predicting, ”Either Denish or Martinez will ‘have to break 50 percent of their campaign promise’ based on current revenue projections.,”
In other words, don’t be surprised if programs supposed to be safe from cost-saving measures are cut and/or a tax increase or two winds up in the state budget deal that emerges from the 2011 legislative session.