Freshman Democrat Martin Heinrich leads Jon Barela, his Republican challenger, by 49-42 percent, according to a poll of 400 voters released today by the conservative group American Action Forum. The poll (pdf) was conducted from August 23-26 and August 29, with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.
The poll also shows that a Democrat leads the “generic ballot” in the district 40-36 percent, despite a historic lead by Republicans on the Gallup generic ballot nationwide.
The results indicate that Barela is less well known than Heinrich, who was elected in 2008; 52 percent of those polled had never heard of Barela, while an additional 17 percent had no opinion of him. Meanwhile, just 3 percent had never heard of Heinrich, with 46 percent had a favorable opinion of him and 39 percent had an unfavorable opinion.
The poll shows that a majority of respondents (51 percent) agree that the economy or jobs is the most important issue facing the country today. The next closest topic was “government spending/earmarks/deficit” at just 9 percent.
Or, as President Bill Clinton’s campaign hammered home in 1992, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
The poll also asked questions about the health care reform bill, referring to it as “Obamacare.”
Who is American Action Forum? Hotline On Call reported at the launch of the non-profit, describing it as “A prominent and wealthy group of GOP heavyweights… aimed at revitalizing the party’s policy offerings, then pay[ing] for ads to spread the message.”
The poll could signal that the American Action Network will begin airing ads against Heinrich ahead of the November elections.
The poll was conducted by Republican pollster Ayres McHenry & Associates.