I am writing today to announce the closure of the New Mexico Independent. After three and a half years of operation in New Mexico, the board of the American Independent News Network, has decided to shift publication of its news…
While environmental activists played their part yesterday during demonstrations at the capitol building, going so far as to dress up as solar panels and to sing the tune of “You Are My Sunshine,” their counterparts, the anti-cap-and-trade contingency who has…
Roughly one quarter of University of New Mexico students are unimpressed with the state’s flagship public school, according to a survey that questioned college students about their higher education experiences.
About two dozen Democratic legislators face GOP challengers this November. Fewer than 10 Republican lawmakers confront similar prospects, fending off Democratic challengers.
It’s a ratio that causes Republican House Minority Whip Keith Gardner to smile.
Two years after Democrats rolled to victory at the Roundhouse, adding to majorities in the state House and the state Senate, signs are pointing to a year that favors the GOP.
Republican Susana Martinez leads Democratic Lt. Gov. Diane Denish in the governor’s race, according to recent polls. And GOP Sen. Dianna Duran could have the best shot in 80 years for a Republican to win the Secretary of State’s office.
So forgive Gardner for thinking his party could make some gains in the New Mexico House of Representatives.
“There could be some wonderful surprises,” Gardner said. “We are poised to make significant gains.”
The disparity between targeted Democratic and Republican seats signals an opportunity for state Republicans to seize on the momentum this election cycle and regain legislative seats it has lost in recent years. Currently, Democrats have a 45-25 advantage in the state House. And some Republicans are talking about the possibility that voter discontent could help the party significantly narrow that margin.
State senators aren’t up for election this year.
“It takes funding and it takes a lot of things to push them across the finish line,” Gardner said, acknowledging that more than 50 days remain before the Nov. 2 election and a lot can happen in that amount of time. “But we’re optimistic about the prospects. When we have one-party rule, there’s a stranglehold on money. And that becomes an issue.”
As hopeful as Gardner’s vision is, there are skeptics who doubt if the GOP can pull off a sweep.
“Did they tell you which ones?” Democratic House Speaker Ben Lujan, D-Santa Fe, asked, referring to the seats Gardner said the GOP could win from Democrats.
Lujan, who survived a too-close-for-comfort primary challenge in June, said one can’t use national surveys that reveal voter discontent favoring the GOP as proof of a Republican advantage going into the November election.
“This is a local situation. The majority of people are happy with their local legislators,” Lujan said. “We have some great candidates. We feel pretty comfortable. Our candidates are doing a good job, knocking on the doors.”
Besides, Lujan said, the Republicans have been in this situation in the past and failed to exploit the opportunity.
Democrats are targeting a couple of Republican seats, Lujan added.
The November election “might change one or two seats one way or the other,” Lujan said, but it won’t be a tidal wave.
A shift in power is unlikely
Lonna Atkeson, a political science professor at the University of New Mexico, said the way the state’s legislative districts are drawn up might reduce the chances for a significant pick-up by Republicans.
“Many of the legislative districts are not competitive,” Atkeson said, explaining that the decennial tradition of re-districting by the New Mexico Legislature gives incumbents the opportunity to create few competitive districts. Fewer competitive districts means fewer cross-over victories by the party that’s been out-of-power in that district.
Most legislative districts are homogeneous, and don’t reflect much diversity, Atkeson said.
“The North Valley looks a certain way. The South Valley looks a certain way,” she explained. “But you don’t have a lot of heterogeneous districts.”
Why are districts created this way?
“They all win by creating safe seats,” Atkeson said. “They all have the same goal: re-election.”
Many of the lawmakers who have lost re-election bids in recent years lost long before November, in party primaries. And, as Atkeson pointed out, most legislative races are run without very much money from campaign contributions.
Put that all together and a tidal wave of victories that shifts the power dynamic from one party to the other in the House becomes unlikely, Atkeson said.
Seven weeks from now the world will know whether the GOP has exploited the voter mood to make serious inroads in displacing the party in power in the House — the Democrats.
“There are enough seats in play right now,” Gardner said. “We’re 55 days out from the election. Really it comes down to what the New Mexico voters want.”
