Another poll shows that Republican gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez has a healthy lead over Democratic candidate Diane Denish. This time, a poll by Rasmussen Reports shows that Martinez leads 50 percent to 40 percent. When “leaners” are added, it becomes a 51 percent to 41 percent lead for the Republican candidate.
A poll from last month showed Martinez leading 48 percent to 43 percent.
The poll shows Martinez has big support among men and a solidified Republican base.
Martinez leads Denish among men 55-37. And she has the support of 90 percent of Republicans. She also picks off 22 percent of the Democratic vote. Martinez has a slight lead among women, 45-43. Women are traditionally a strong Democratic constituency.
But there are a significant number of Democrats (7 percent) who say they will vote for “some other” candidate (which get 4 percent overall in the poll). Another 9 percent of Democrats are undecided. Just 3 percent of Republicans say that they will vote for another candidate or that they are not sure. Nine percent of decline-to-state voters are undecided or will vote for another opponent.
When leaners are added, 4 percent of Democrats still say they will vote for some other candidate and 9 percent are still undecided. The other two percent of Democrats go to Martinez.
Marinez leads among independents by a 51 percent to 40 percent margin.
The barrage of negative ads by Martinez seem to be having a noticeable effect on Denish’s favorable ratings while Denish’s negative ads don’t seem to be having their intended effect.The poll found that 48 percent of those polled have a favorable opinion towards Denish to 49 percent who have an unfavorable opinion. For Martinez, 60 percent have a favorable opinion of her while 38 percent have an unfavorable opinion.
A poll last month found that 53 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Denish and that 55 percent had a favorable opinion of Martinez.
Rasmussen found that 20 percent of respondents consider themselves part of the tea party movement, and that 45 percent believe that the tea party movement is good for the country. Meanwhile, 66 percent do not consider themselves part of the tea party movement (and I think that the 14 percent show said they are “not sure” can safely be said to not be part of the movement) and 33 percent feel it is bad for the country. Of those who support the tea party movement, 90 percent support Martinez and just 4 percent support Denish. Denish leads those who do not consider themselves part of the tea party movement by a 55 percent to 35 percent margin. Of those who are not sure, 64 percent back Martinez and just 19 percent support Denish.
Feelings on the stimulus package that passed last year is very closely split. Rasmussen finds that 40 percent say that it helped the economy and 42 percent say that it hurt the economy.
As for the economy as a whole, 52 percent say that “the nations’ current economic problems are due to the recession which began under the Bush Administration” to the 43 percent who say it was “cause more by the policies of President Obama has put in place since taking office.”
Despite the seemingly loaded question (one assigns blame specifically to Obama while the other passively says that it happened “under the Bush Administration”), still more say it isn’t Obama’s fault. But the flawed question makes the results hard to ascertain.
The poll was of 750 likely voters and was conducted on September 29. It has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.