Rep. Martin Heinrich continues to lead in New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District according to the latest Albuquerque Journal poll conducted by Research & Polling, Inc. In New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District, the poll shows that the two candidates are still in a virtual dead heat.
The poll found that 48 percent support Democrat Heinrich in his first re-election bid while only 41 percent support Jon Barela, the Republican challenger. Former Republican Congressman Steve Pearce leads Democrat Harry Teague by the smallest of margins—46 percent to 45 percent—well within the poll’s 5 percent margin of error.
Both results are in line with other recent polls.
Heinrich has led by at least 6 percentage points in every poll released except for a SurveyUSA poll back in July that showed Barela in the lead. Even with SurveyUSA’s Republican lean, this poll appears to be an outlier.
This is the second consecutive poll that indicated that the 2nd congressional district race is virtually tied. A Public Policy Polling survey in late September conducted for the liberal blog Daily Kos showed Pearce leading 48 percent to 47 percent.
Pollster Brian Sanderoff told the Journal that the anti-incumbent mood isn’t helping either candidate. Pearce was in Congress from 2003-2009 and Teague has served since January 2009 in the same House seat that Pearce vacated to run for Senate.
Both candidates are well-known in the district and have backgrounds in the oil and natural gas industry.
“I don’t think the anti-incumbent mood helps either of them,” Sanderoff said. “They’re running by criticizing the records of their opponents rather than touting their own records or vast experience.”
As for the 1st congressional district race, Heinrich is helped by support from independents and Hispanics in his district. The poll found that Heinrich has support of 51 percent of independents to 38 percent for Barela. Barela leads among Anglos 51 percent to 41 percent, but Heinrich leads among Hispanics by a 60 percent to 22 percent margin.
In the 1st Congressional District, the poll of 403 likely voters was conducted by telephone interview from September 27-30 and has a margin of error of +/- 5 percent. The poll of 402 likely voters in the 2nd congressional district was conducted at the same time and also has a margin of error of +/- 5 percent.