In another sign of a Democratic wave this year, the Cook Political Report has moved the 1st Congressional District race in New Mexico to “Lean-Democratic” from the previous “Toss Up” designation.

The non-partisan political analyst David Wasserman changed twelve races and wrote, “… our current outlook is a gain of 23 to 28 seats for House Democrats.”

Wasserman believes that many factors are contributing to the race tilting towards Democrat Martin Heinrich and away from Republican Darren White.

Polling shows the Democratic lean of this district finally allowing Democratic Albuquerque City Councilman Martin Heinrich to overtake GOP Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White. DCCC ads highlighting White’s position as New Mexico chair of Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign refer to White as “Bush’s favorite sheriff” and have clearly taken a serious toll on GOP chances of holding this open seat. The NRCC has signaled as much by reducing their investment here, largely leaving White to fend for himself.

Of the twelve ratings changes, only one was favorable for the Republicans; in Florida’s 16th district, Democrat Tim Mahoney’s chances of retaining his seat seem to be spiraling away after the news that he had an affair. Mahoney’s wife is now seeking a divorce.

Another notable name on the list is Michelle Bachmann. Bachmann unleashed a tirade on Hardball last week calling for a press investigation into which members of Congress were “anti-American.” Her opponent El Tinklenberg received a significant fundraising boost in the hours following Bachmann’s Hardball appearance.