Jon Barela leads incumbent Democrat Martin Heinrich by 2 percent in an internal poll conducted for the Barela campaign. The 49 percent to 47 percent lead is well within the poll’s 4.9 percent margin of error.
The last independent poll, from nearly a month ago, showed that Heinrich lead Barela by 9 percent. This internal poll is the first to show Barela in the lead, or even within 6 percent, since July.
The poll showed that just 3 percent in the district are undecided and 1 percent refused to say which candidate they would vote for.
“We’ve said from the beginning that this was going to be one of the most competitive races in the country, and with one week to go, these numbers prove exactly that,” Barela said in a press release announcing the numbers.
The poll was conducted by the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies which recently released a poll that showed Republican gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez leading by 8 percent in that race.
The poll was conducted from October 24-25. The polling memo did not indicate that the pollster called cell phone numbers as it had in the gubernatorial poll.
A study by the Pew Research Center found that there is a bias towards Republicans in polls that do not include cell phone numbers.
We, like most other news outlets, take internal polls with a grain of salt.