According to New York Times polling expert Nate Silver, Rasmussen Reports is the big loser in this year’s midterm election. For two years, Rasmussen Reports’ polling results were consistently more favorable to Republicans than Democrats, Silver writes. And while many pollsters with polls that are divergent from the others regress to the average near election day, the polls from Rasmussen Reports did not—to their detriment.
Meanwhile, firms SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University were more accurate, according to Silver’s preliminary analysis of polls released in the final three weeks of the campaign.
Silver wrote:
On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.
Other polling firms, like SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac Univesrity, produced more reliable results in Senate and gubernatorial races. A firm that conducts surveys by Internet, YouGov, also performed relatively well.
SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports both polled the New Mexico gubernatorial race in the three week period.
SurveyUSA pegged the race at 54 percent for Susana Martinez and 42 percent for Diane Denish and Rasmussen Reports put the race at 52 percent for Martinez to 42 percent for Denish.
The final election result in New Mexico was 54 percent for Martinez to 46 percent for Denish.