The addictive electoral polling analysis Web site FiveThirtyEight took a look at New Mexico and its electoral outlook on the presidential level.

“Hopefully this year New Mexico will be able to report its results during the same week as the election,” Sean Quinn wrote, as part of the site’s Road to 270 series.

Ouch.

He also notes the close votes New Mexico has had in the past two election cycles. “Under the radar due to the Florida fiasco, Al Gore won by a razor thin margin here in 2000, and George Bush’s win logged in at a mere 5,992 votes in 2004,” Quinn wrote.

Quinn, who was in New Mexico with photographer Brett Marty earlier this year, predicted New Mexico will be blue on the presidential level this year. “Barack Obama should expect a comfortable win in this beautiful part of the world,” he wrote. Quinn cited the polls, which “haven’t been close.”

The Web site, which predicts the outcome of the election state-by-state, says there is a 96 percent chance that New Mexico will be a state in Obama’s column by the end of Election Day (or whenever the state finally finishes counting votes).

So why will Obama win, according to Quinn? The ground game. “Only one of them has a ground game that can be taken seriously,” Quinn wrote. And that is Obama. Obama has opened 39 field offices throughout the state, twice as many as John McCain, even including the Republican Party headquarters around the state which double as McCain campaign hubs.

Barack Obama has organized New Mexico in an unprecedented way for a Democrat. There is a high quality team on the ground in the state. Outreach to Pueblo communities and Native American communities has been thoughtfully conducted from an early stage, and Obama’s effort in the state has dwarfed [John] Kerry’s of four years ago.

As for the “poblanically spicy” tag, that comes from statistician and founder of FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver. Silver began the site under the pseudonym “Poblano” before revealing himself to the public. Silver also crunches the numbers for baseball at Baseball Prospectus.

Quinn and Marty are traveling to battleground states for the Web site.