I am writing today to announce the closure of the New Mexico Independent. After three and a half years of operation in New Mexico, the board of the American Independent News Network, has decided to shift publication of its news…
While environmental activists played their part yesterday during demonstrations at the capitol building, going so far as to dress up as solar panels and to sing the tune of “You Are My Sunshine,” their counterparts, the anti-cap-and-trade contingency who has…
Roughly one quarter of University of New Mexico students are unimpressed with the state’s flagship public school, according to a survey that questioned college students about their higher education experiences.
The Evans-Novak Political Report focused on New Mexico Senate and Congressional races a couple of days ago, offering up their predictions from a center-right political perspective. And to them, it doesn’t look pretty.
They’re on board with the observation by the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Nevada’s John Ensign, that Steve Pearce has an uphill battle on his hands.
Evans and Novak call Tom Udall a "strong favorite" and predict New Mexico’s open senate seat will most likely swing to the Democrats. They say that "Bush hangs like a rain cloud over the GOP here, and McCain might not bring any coattails."
They also note a strong cash advantage for Udall, who had $2.9 million on hand as of May 14, while Pearce had spent almost all of the $1.9 million he had raised in the primary.
Maybe these two don’t realize the huge personal cash advantage Pearce has over Udall though. Reports show that Pearce has anywhere from $7 to $33 million in personal assets, while Udall by comparison has a measly $1.5 to $3.6 million. As the primaries demonstrated, New Mexico is full of millionaires who have no qualms sinking huge chunks of their personal fortunes into seeking higher office. Many in the state will be very interested to see if Pearce follows suit. Money aside though, the other factors noted do seem to point to an uphill battle for Pearce.
Evans and Novak start their discussion of the congressional races right off the bat by observing that: "This could be a very bad year for Republicans in New Mexico."
They give most of their analysis to the 1st Congressional District, basically predicting that the Democrats will take over the district despite the fact that Darren White is a "strong candidate" who has the "right pedigree." He’s an elected sheriff, which in their view means his "record is helpfully thin on policy issues." Plus, he has strong name recognition, they say, and has experience with campaigns. They claim he stacks up well against Martin Heinrich, noting his name recognition, experience in law enforcement, and previous campaign experience. They paint Heinrich as a liberal, and claim he’s not well known. Plus has a voting record–which in their view is detrimental.
But despite their favorable view of White, they consider him seriously damaged by his association with President Bush. White was Bush’s Bernalillo County campaign chairman in 2004, and Bush recently visited New Mexico to hold a fundraiser for him. "The political landscape," they say, "seriously favors Heinrich. Bush’s name and the GOP brand are dirt in New Mexico."
Not to mention, they continue, "Tom Udall is likely to dominate the Senate race. In Albuquerque at least, Obama enthusiasm could drive up Democratic turnout, while luke- warmness about McCain could suppress GOP turnout. Domenici won’t be able to help White, while Democratic Sen. Jeff Bingaman could be on hand to boost all of the Democratic candidates. Because we expect a strong Democratic tide, White’s strengths look likely to be wiped out by a Democratic surge."
Well, OK then. Can someone tell me why they think Domenici won’t be able to help White?
Regarding the 2nd Congressional District in the south, which they call the "Republican seat," they predict it’ll likely remain Republican but consider it to be a contested race nonetheless. They outright say Ed Tinsley doesn’t live in the district. Instead, they say, he "hails" from the "wealthy, artsy Las Campanas community in Santa Fe." They characterize Democrat Harry Teague as just as conservative as Tinsley and say Teague will "ruthlessly use the carpetbagger attack" against Tinsley. But, in the end, they predict that the Republican strength in the area will win out.
As to northern New Mexico’s 3rd Congressional District seat, they predict it will easily remain with the Democrats and barely discuss it. Republican Dan East "doesn’t have much of a chance" against Ben Ray Lujan, they say, even though they don’t consider Lujan "particularly impressive." It’s a Democratic district and Lujan enjoys the weight of the state party leadership’s firm support.
