I am writing today to announce the closure of the New Mexico Independent. After three and a half years of operation in New Mexico, the board of the American Independent News Network, has decided to shift publication of its news…
While environmental activists played their part yesterday during demonstrations at the capitol building, going so far as to dress up as solar panels and to sing the tune of “You Are My Sunshine,” their counterparts, the anti-cap-and-trade contingency who has…
Roughly one quarter of University of New Mexico students are unimpressed with the state’s flagship public school, according to a survey that questioned college students about their higher education experiences.
When the results in New Mexico came flowing in and showed the Democrats had swept all three U.S. House seats last Tuesday, it came as a shock. Not a shock that it had been done — the possibility had become a probability in the run-up to the elections — but a shock in how easily the Democrats prevailed in the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts.
One reason for the shock, at least, was the polling that the public had seen showed the races to be significantly closer than the final results.
The Albuquerque Journal was the only independent organization to poll the U.S. House races in the weeks before the race.
The Journal poll showed a 4 percent lead for Democrat Martin Heinrich in its final poll of the 1st Congressional District, 47 percent to 43 percent for Republican Darren White with 10 percent undecided or refusing to say. The current margin of victory is 10 percent for Heinrich, with the congressman-elect leading 55 percent to 45 percent.
In the 2nd Congressional District, the last Journal poll showed a 4 percent lead for Democrat Harry Teague, 45 percent to 41 percent for Republican Ed Tinsley with a whopping 14 percent undecided. Teague currently leads by 11.8 percent, 55.9 percent to 44.1 percent.
In the 3rd Congressional District, the Journal poll showed a 28 percent lead for Democrat Ben Ray Lujan. Lujan led in the poll 51 percent to 23 percent over Republican Dan East, with independent Carol Miller getting 12 percent of the support and 14 percent undecided or refused to say. Lujan currently leads by 26 percentage points, receiving 56.6 percent of the vote to East’s 26.6 percent and Carol Miller’s 12.8 percent. This proved to be the Albuquerque Journal’s most accurate poll, despite the smallest sample size.
The margin of error on the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts was +/- 5 percent, while the 3rd Congressional District poll had a margin of error of +/- 7 percent. The polls conducted from October 28-30 were of 400 registered voters in the 1st Congressional District, 401 registered voters in the 2nd Congressional District and 201 registered voters in the 3rd Congressional District.
This may indicate that the presidential and Senate polling by the Albuquerque Journal undersampled the 3rd Congressional District, which is highly favorable to Democratic candidates. Perhaps this accounts for the polling error that favored the Republican candidates in our presidential and U.S. Senate races, though the pollster — Research and Polling Inc. — could have accounted for this by more accurately weighting the voters in the 3rd Congressional District.
