Brace yourself

Record turnout expected for June 3 primary, and it likely favors GOP.

Secretary of State Mary Herrera's office estimates that turnout in the upcoming June 3 primary election could hit 70 percent.

This year election year interest has never been higher for political primaries. And when voters from each party go to the polls on June 3, they may very well go in record numbers.

The Secretary of State's office recently told state lawmakers it anticipates a 70 percent turnout of the roughly 875,000 registered Democrats and Republicans. And just to be prepared, it has more than 1 million paper ballots on hand for the expected wave of voters because sometimes individuals can spoil ballots and it's better to have more than enough than get caught with too few, Secretary of State Mary Herrera and her staff said.

Republicans have the crown jewel of the June 3 primary -- the Senate primary between Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce -- and likely will log a record turnout because of the high-profile, brass-knuckle race.

“Traditionally in the past, we just haven't had the high visibility primaries in past years that we do this year,” New Mexico Republican Party Communications Director Scott Darnell told the Independent.

“It's not only the Senate race, but we have three contested primaries in our Congressional races,” Darnell said. He continued, “We should experience very high turnout in Republican primaries in every part of the state.”

While the Democratic Presidential primary was held on February 5 and more than 150,000 Democrats cast ballots, the rest of the Democratic primaries, for state legislative races as well as for the three congressional races, are going to be held the same day as the Republican primaries. While Senate candidate Tom Udall, a Santa Fe Democrat, has no primary opponent, there may still be enough interest in the congressional races for a high turnout in the primary.

“All three districts are competitive, and we also have a number of highly competitive state House and state Senate primaries,” said New Mexico Democratic Party Executive Director Josh Geise. More than a dozen Democrats are running for a shot to represent the party in the state's three congressional races this November.

“There are a number of campaigns who will be expending their resources to turn out voters,” Geise said.

No numbers are available for the first quarter of 2008 yet, but last year, the Secretary of State's office counted over 30,000 new registered voters, according to James Flores, spokesman for the office.

Much of the interest for new voters, Flores said, comes from the presidential race but "also what’s taking place with our Congressional races."

"I think that Sen. Domenici making the move to retire kind of opened up a whirlwind of activity at that level. Because of that we have three of our Congress people ... vying for that position, and that just creates a lot of interest," Flores said.

The open Senate race is widely acknowledged as one of the top-tier Senate races nationwide among many political observers.

But it isn’t just about the Senate race for the Republicans, according to Darnell. “You also have to look down in Congressional District 2. You have five candidates who are going to be pushing voters out for them.”

Both Darnell and Geise agree a high primary turnout will breed a similarly high turnout in November’s general election because the excitement may lead more new voters to register for the first time and bring inactive voters out of their hibernation to cast ballots.

“Certainly the people who vote in primaries are going to vote,” Darnell said, “But there are going to be new voters drawn in on both sides to take part in this election in this state that we'll see record turnout in New Mexico in the general election again.”

Independents and other minor party candidates cannot take part in these primaries, but even among them, interest seems high.

“We’ll probably see what we saw in the caucus,” Geise said, “a number of independents and decline-to-states trying to vote, wanting to participate in the Democratic primary because there is such dissatisfaction with the Republicans.”

“The biggest surprise of this caucus was the more than 3,500 voters---Independents, Greens and Republicans---that tried to vote in the Democratic caucus,” said Chairman Brian Colón in a press release from the Democratic Party on February 14.

It isn't just federal level races, either.

"There’s a lot of races statewide. There’s judgeships, district attorneys are this year. Those have generated interest as well," said Flores.

print Share

Register or log in to rate