New poll shows Obama ahead... depending on VP
A SurveyUSA poll released Tuesday showed that in New Mexico, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama leads Arizona Sen. John McCain 49 percent to 46 percent in a head-to-head matchup, which is a virtual dead heat because Obama's lead is within the poll's margin of error. The last SurveyUSA poll showed a dead heat between the two, at 44 percent each. The new poll also features possible vice presidential choices by the two candidates.
But in a sign of how close the race is, Obama's lead either evaporated or weakened depending on his or McCain's pick for vice president. Not surprisingly, Obama did best in the matchup with McCain when Gov. Bill Richardson was the Democratic VP candidate.
McCain still has a strong lead among Republicans, 85 percent to 12 percent. Obama leads among Democrats, 77 percent to 18 percent, and among Independents, 55 percent to 39 percent.
Obama leads in Bernalillo County 54 percent to 42 percent, while McCain leads in the rest of the state 49 percent to 46 percent. Nearly all of the First Congressional District lays within the borders of Bernalillo County.
Despite questions of a "Hispanic problem" for Obama by pundits and other analysts, Obama leads among Hispanics 63 percent to 34 percent. According to CNN exit polls, Obama lost Hispanics to Hillary Clinton in the February primaries by a similar margin, 62 percent to 36 percent.
Among white voters, McCain leads Obama 53 percent to 42 percent. Obama won among white voters in the New Mexico primary 55 percent to 43 percent, according to the CNN exit polling.
A New Mexico poll released Monday by Rasmussen Reports showed "Obama leading McCain 47 percent to 39 percent," according to Independent writer Joel Gay.
Pollsters found little support for Obama choosing Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running mate, however. Only 27 percent of New Mexico voters approved that matchup, while 51 percent nixed it.
Clinton was not polled as a potential vice presidential choice for Obama by SurveyUSA.
Not surprisingly, the strongest running mate choice for Obama in New Mexico is ... New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. Richardson leads several possible vice presidential choices by more than five points. SurveyUSA dubbed the poll "VP Matchups: Favorite Son Edition" because of Richardson's results in his home state.
The other possible vice presidents for Obama included in the poll were Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer, Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Virginia Sen. Jim Webb. Possible McCain running mates included in the poll were Bloomberg, Lousiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.
McCain's strongest choice to run alongside him looks to be either Jindal or Fiorina, who both defeat Scheitzer and McKaskill but lose to Webb and Richardson.
An Obama-Richardson ticket leads all three McCain tickets in the poll, which was conducted between June 16 and June 19. The poll featured 539 likely voters and has a margin of error of ± 4.3 percentage points.
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